- This event has passed.
BERD Seminar: Tracking and prediction of the early COVID-19 pandemic across Africa
February 27, 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm
Presented by Andrew Geronimo, PhD
Our multinational team created a strategy for understanding the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the African continent. Because high-quality mobility data are challenging to obtain across Africa, the endemic-epidemic framework used provides the ability to distinguish cases arising from within a country or from its neighbors. Based on prior evidence, the model incorporated factors of climate, economic status, and government policy as contributors. The results show how testing capacity and social and health policy contribute to the dynamics of cases, and generate short-term predictions of the evolution of the pandemic on a country-by-country basis.